Auditors can’t catch this because GAAP accounting standards obfuscate it, as I’ll explain later. The four largest US banks specifically turned into key players: their net lending position (reverse repo assets minus repo liabilities) increased quickly, reaching about $300 billion at end-June 2019 (Graph A.1, centre panel, red bars). You can see how much liquidity that the Fed has injected in the repo markets in the official balance sheet. EGG MARKET NEWS REPORT ISSN 1520-6122 Monday, August 26, 2019 Vol. fO�9 r�Xe�dL�$�{��4�1X���(�?c�O� �� h�T�Mo�0��� © 2021 Forbes Media LLC. But, as usual, the Fed will almost certainly do what it always does—stem the run by injecting cash into the system in various ways, thereby socializing losses among all US dollar holders. The Fed has a theory about why. Rather, I’m referring to the practice in the repo market that allows more people to believe they own US Treasuries than actually do. I saw inaccuracies in Wall Street’s ledger systems while running Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), holding senior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and starting my career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). Essentially, repurchase agreements — or repos — are how banks borrow cash from money market funds, often overnight. In this regard, Bitcoin is an insurance policy against financial market instability. The repo market seized up last week, with median repurchase rates skyrocketing from their usual band of 2.00-2.25% to 2.46% on Monday, and 5.25% on … Here’s what the books of three parties show when a transferee (Party A) sells pledged collateral to a third party (Party C): If you add up the positions of all parties, economically there’s no problem because the net of the two longs and one short position add up to $100. The repo market shook the financial world in September when an unexpected rate spike choked short-term lending, spurring the Federal Reserve to intervene. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. It’s unstable. But almost no one is talking about the elephant in the room. 34 U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing ServiceLivestock, Poultry & Grain Market News USDA AMS Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market News 1 endstream endobj 85 0 obj <> endobj 86 0 obj <> endobj 87 0 obj <>stream … The Fed Repo-market turmoil raises almost existential question about post-crisis Wall Street rules, former Fed official says Published: Dec. 6, 2019 at 8:09 a.m. Many analysts do too. these hqla municipal obligations represent the collateral for the repo’s and are the same as cash for lcr stress/testing. ET Here I distinguish between price volatility and systemic volatility. The balance sheets balance because Party B records a liability, so auditors don’t catch the problem. Oct. 24, 2019 9:30 am. I hold degrees from Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990). In June 2014, FASB updated the US GAAP accounting rules for repos. The feared chaos in the repo market over the year-end period didn't materialize as the Fed had flooded the market with cash via repo operations and purchases of T-bills. Last week the financial system ran out of cash. Auditors can’t help here, and the accounting profession bears some of the blame for this problem. h�bbd```b``��`� D�d�H�F�� The September 16 Repo Market Fiasco. the Repo Market in the US deteriorated in a dramatic surge of demand for liquidity in … 84 0 obj <> endobj I bring you bitcoin/blockchain thru a 22-year Wall St. veteran's lens, EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Elon Musk, The World’s Richest Man, Wants To Be Paid In Bitcoin, As Bitcoin Smashes Through $40,000, Data Reveals What’s Behind The Huge 2021 Bitcoin Price Boom, Bitcoin Breaks Through $40,000 To Notch A Fresh All-Time High, Mass Hong Kong Arrests Of Legislators And Activists Show Why Bitcoin Is Essential, Forget Student Loan Forgiveness—Here’s How One Dad Hopes To Avoid College Fees Altogether, Crypto Surges To $1 Trillion As Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple’s XRP, Cardano And Stellar Price Soars, Bitcoin Prices Break Through $36,000 To Reach Their Latest High, Cryptocurrency May Be Subject To FBAR Reporting Soon, Crypto Needs Clearer Policy Making - Highlighted By The SEC Complaint Against Ripple. Oct. 30, 2019, 08:21 AM ... "Banks have little reason to use this cash to take a potential risk of default in the repo market when they are getting such a sweet deal from the Fed," he said. For years, IMF economist Dr. Manmohan Singh has done terrific work estimating it (see examples here, here, here, here, here, here and here). Multiple parties report that they own the very same asset, when only one of them truly does. The problem arises when you aggregate the three US GAAP financial statements. I jumped to blockchain to try to fix these problems, and from 2016-2018 I was chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain company, where I jointly spearheaded blockchain delivery of index data to Vanguard. That’s the layman’s explanation of what’s happening. Bitcoin’s price is highly volatile, but as a system it is more stable. But the interest rates … The New York Fed has been working with tri-party repo market participants to make changes to improve the resiliency of the market to financial stress. However, it provides a “teachable moment” regarding systemic fragility and anti-fragility. It was a modern version of a bank run, and it’s not over yet. Banks are supposedly healthy and flush with cash, right? The repo market is an essential part of the financial system and any issues with it will have big knock-on effects. Bilateral repo transactions can either allow for general collateral or ... SIFMA 2019 US Repo Market Fact Sheet SIFMA Research SIFMA is the voice of the U.S. securities industry. They recognize that what appears to be an 8% risk-free arbitrage is anything but risk-free. @����[�K�B����N��g�O��>�|�~���/�3�Y�@�] It’s called “rehypothecation.”). One of the secondary effects of repo market volatility is the impact it could have on banks’ adoption of the secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, as an alternative interest rate benchmark to the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. That’s right. At the same time, the next largest 25 banks reduced their demand for repo funding, turning the net repo position of the banking sector positive (centre panel, dashed line). Published on September 17, 2019, 7:40 PM EDT Following the 2008 financial crisis, investors focused on a particular type of repo known as repo 105. Overall this is all part of the market shifting through time to a new set of realities.” ( Adds Wednesday’s repo rate quote in third paragraph. Italy GC averaged -0.30, around 17bp cheaper than 96 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<75BBE75DDF940D664DA42F4064FE2148><010798172367E348B0C8A73984EB871B>]/Index[84 22]/Info 83 0 R/Length 77/Prev 172015/Root 85 0 R/Size 106/Type/XRef/W[1 3 1]>>stream The Financial Crisis and the Repo Market . The closest I’ve heard a financial regulator speak publicly of this is former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo, to his credit, when he answered a question after a 2016 speech: “At the heart of the financial crisis, perhaps the most critical element was the lack of visibility into the counterparty credit exposure of one major financial institution to another. For me, Bitcoin is empowering because it provides a choice to opt out of the traditional financial system. Probably the most glaring omission that needed to be addressed was that lack of visibility, and here we are in 2016 and we still don’t have it.”. Yes, it’s true that a run in the repo market is serious, since the big banks are still overly reliant on it and one dropped ball by the Fed could quickly turn the brush fire into an inferno. 0 The repo rate spiked in mid-September 2019, rising to as high as 10 percent intra-day and, even then, financial institutions with excess cash refused to … In stark contrast to the traditional financial system, Bitcoin is not a debt-based system that periodically experiences bank run-like instability. We advocate for effective and resilient capital markets. If this topic makes you uncomfortable, it should. The moment all three developments were spent, around the fall … This describes Bitcoin, whose network security grows as the system’s processing power grows. Kai Ryssdal and Maria Hollenhorst Oct 9, 2019. J�H?�5+����r��-��`�=���wX�ŀxܕX �H!4�*�'r���"}.�'׻��_�����^s"� ��� The repo market shook the financial world in September when an unexpected rate spike choked short-term lending, spurring the Federal Reserve to intervene. the financial system is. Interest rates have betrayed common sense—interest rates in the repo market should be lower than rates in unsecured markets, for example, because repos are secured by assets and thus supposedly lower-risk. counting of US Treasuries takes place. The "repo" crisis that the Federal Reserve has been dealing with since early September 2019 appears to be backing off and hopefully the Fed will have time for other issues. Every player knows there aren’t enough chairs. ICMA, January 2020 The European repo market at 2019 year-end 7 | P a g e Periphery repo Periphery GC rates tend to cheapen over year-end, in particular Italy, and 2019 was no exception although the moves were relatively range bound. Party B borrows it, showing a liability of $100 ($100 of securities sold, not yet purchased). (Reuters) - The $2.2 trillion repurchase agreement market - part of the inner workings of the U.S. financial system - is facing what could be another strain as the year comes to a close. On the flip side, the better question is why banks weren’t willing to lend against “risk-free” collateral for an 8% “risk-free” gain? Here, we … In mid-September 2019, overnight money market rates spiked and exhibited significant volatility, amid a large drop in reserves due to the corporate tax date and increases in … So why aren’t banks falling over themselves to rake in such easy, “risk-free” profits? Kevin Drum Political Blogger Bio ... the Fed has continued injecting cash into the repo market … Specifically, the Fed’s focus on the fed funds market is misplaced because the real action is in the much bigger, much more global repo market; the Fed shouldn’t have allowed America’s big banks to pay dividends or buy back stock when they’re so capital-constrained that they can’t even pick up an 8% “risk-free” arbitrage; the Fed’s proclamation that “the financial system remains resilient,” when it released the results of the most recent bank stress tests in June 2019, strains credulity; a staggering amount of US dollar liabilities have been issued offshore in recent decades and the Fed not only doesn’t control them but can’t measure them with any degree of accuracy; and banks’ financial statements don’t accurately reflect their financial health. Somebody—probably a big bank—needs cash so badly that it has been willing to pay a shockingly high cost to obtain it. The financial system is fragile. ... on Wednesday, July 31, 2019. ;���$�5��}m�[3 *����CP��r�hpr�F���FJ��1�E h��|RqU����'����#e Ѫd�Lk�UGTn�JI�¹�%zdj�@J�S�r��rs��mE#%!��'�Z��J6�*�(堞HT�G�!_�Y�Xq��. At a systemic level, the traditional financial system is as fragile as Bitcoin is anti-fragile. Shockingly, the Fed admitted to asking itself this same question, as revealed in an extraordinary interview on Friday with New York Fed President John Williams in the\Financial Times. %PDF-1.6 %���� 66 No. Final rule effective July 5, 2019). What’s Wrong With the Repo Market? All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. As you can see, a total of about $500 billion has been injected since September 2019, which is when the Fed started the new "repo machine" back up. I’m a 22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin since 2012, and whose passion is a fair and stable financial system. It always has been. On Monday, September 16, 2019, a similar situation occurred in the overnight repurchase agreement (repo) funding market. But the run on repo can be stalled in one of two ways: (1) banks raise new equity capital, or (2) the Fed injects more dollars into the system. It had already briefly blown out at the end of 2018, then settled back down. You may opt-out by. What it all means is that, while each bank’s financial statements show the bank is solvent, the financial system as a whole isn’t. What started in the repo market last week isn’t new—it’s actually the fourth such episode since 2008. 7�(P�Bںz؇�vwHL�4B��~��Z� ��'�m�v�����Ïz�3t�5���5B���B���z^��zh�P��L3;ۍ��$�3$��_��pH�=�wo����\���? I’m a 22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin since 2012, and whose passion is a fair and stable financial system. December 13, 2019. endstream endobj 88 0 obj <>stream But repo rates spiked way above unsecured lending rates last week, even for “risk-free” collateral such as US Treasuries. The repo market is huge. It’s as close as a regulator will come to admitting the reality that the system doesn’t work the way most of us think it does and that the Fed may not even understand critical things about it. 105 0 obj <>stream It made me uncomfortable when I first realized all of this, which for me happened during the financial crisis while I was working on Wall Street and took a deep dive into why the crisis was happening. By the end of July, the repo problems made their way into the Fed’s meeting, as we learned when the minutes of that meeting were released in August. Borrowers in the market for repurchase, or repo, agreements briefly had to pay an annual rate of more than 4 percent, after weeks of paying … Most financial regulators baffle us with jargon when they discuss this issue, making it barely intelligible to regular folks (cloaking it in such terms as “clogged transmission mechanisms,” “length of collateral chains”). %%EOF v � !�� R0���(T� V�dr1Х�̕F@�����c`�af�f�gt`�v��'�����#�i�>`8�U10_� �)w�)���Q � T�W� The repo market blew out in mid-September. US Treasuries are the core asset used by every financial institution to satisfy its capital and liquidity requirements—which means that no one really knows how big the hole is at a system-wide level. That trade lost someone a whopping 8% (annualized) overnight, but presumably the trade allowed the bank to stay in business for another day. Party A owns a particular US Treasury Bond, showing an asset of $100. Both Party A and Party C report that they own the same asset (!) What does this mean for markets in the short-term? A Followup. Bitcoin is no one’s IOU. Since January 2018 I've volunteered in my native state of Wyoming to enact a series of enabling blockchain laws, and am a gubernatorial appointee to the Wyoming Blockchain Task Force. The repo market can be split into two main segments: Bilateral Repo – The bilateral repo market has investors and collateral providers directly exchange money and securities, absent a clearing bank. Stepping back, it reveals two big things about financial markets: first, US Treasuries are not truly “risk-free” assets, as most consider them to be, and second, big banks are significantly undercapitalized. Everyone knows someone will eventually lose. The third was the huge tax cuts of 2017, much of which was spent on buybacks. In light of the traditional financial system’s instability, despite all of Bitcoin’s drawbacks, I find that a powerful concept. h޼TmO"1�+���p}��v�Q.��;M�~X��^�,�D��ʹ��Q���t��[g�Պ0�s�9'Z�8጑�K�`J3�~�������RhrtDO�i�K�@?-8�b�ۥ�f��6�� �����m3-�7�r0����hQ�ݱ�7���G�(�C���KrW�kʘpZ��Ř��L��f�k��*���zꖞh&��h ���u��3W��=����E`GpN�u9_�4���7��e�t!� 0��l������ڪ����� Z�$h8/r���$��:?���M�(�`���P�ȗu5�-�#��-~��m��oZz��G�_�b���l�j��k�]ۙk���`4��+�9�Wn^�}͚[wH���U��2#L���`\��։���,7���{�hpE 6 �۠�&1B�V)3�P�,S��$�{��yJ ��9z�[����LX�I�'C�DD am@��d^�!���H�v��2y��dnt�ڌal�NW�Fº��l�T2�Y)"�D��������F �]E'��㭖Fd�*�L�锊�\`&k�]�����n��05KO��f��4����(qz�N�_� An anti-fragile system is one that becomes stronger and more resilient as a result of shocks, not weaker. What started in the repo market last week isn’t new—it’s actually the fourth such episode since 2008. The article by Kevin George finishes with a piece of advice, to read beyond the headlines: The Repo-Crisis of September 2019 O n Tuesday, September 17th. It has no lender of last resort because it doesn’t need one. For every US Treasury security outstanding, roughly three parties believe they own it. h�b```f``2�l@��9 9Ls/5j3)�=8 m�������| �!��Ƃ�!ڥrwuyu�� @Ō*Oӻ�����T�VqG�5���@��O���*0Ht40dtt0�Ftt40 The repo rate rose just 0.08 percentage points above recent levels, suggesting that the Fed’s efforts to make the market more resilient had succeeded. To wit, the IMF has estimated that the same collateral was reused 2.2 times in 2018, which means both the original owner plus 2.2 subsequent re-users believe they own the same collateral (often a US Treasury security). The event doesn’t mean another financial meltdown is necessarily imminent—just that the risk of one is heightened—since the brush fire can be doused either by the Fed, or by the banks raising more equity capital. No one knows, but I doubt this is “the big one.” Sure, the repo market is flashing red sirens. If you want to understand the repo market, think about renting shoes at a bowling alley. But at … endstream endobj startxref The repo blow-up of 2019 set markets on edge and prompted the Fed to pump billions of dollars of emergency funding into the financial system. No one really knows how solvent (insolvent?) This is the real reason why the repo market periodically seizes up. Last week the financial system ran out of cash. But the issues started bubbling up again. Why was someone willing to borrow cash at a 10% interest rate last Tuesday, in exchange for pledging US Treasury collateral that yields only 2% or less? This is why the FT’s interview with Williams was so extraordinary. It’s akin to musical chairs—no one knows how many players will be without a chair until the music stops. Financial regulators can’t publicly admit to this, but big banks know it’s true—and that’s why they hunker down (and stop lending) when they sense one of their kin is in trouble. When that same bond is reused again and again and again in similar transactions, the magnitude of double counting within the financial system builds in a manner that no one can accurately measure. (By this, I’m not referring to the US potentially defaulting on its debt obligations. This is why US Treasuries aren’t risk-free—they’re the most rehypothecated asset in financial markets, and the big banks know this. As risk premiums go, 8% is shockingly high—for a supposedly risk-free asset! The Federal Reserve is closing out 2019 seemingly in control, at least for the moment, of a problem that only a few months ago threatened to spiral into a crisis. And no one really knows how much double-, triple-, quadruple-, etc. But US Treasuries are not risk-free. Singh has been recommending for years that regulators’ financial stability assessments of big banks be adjusted to back out “pledged collateral, or the associated reuse of such assets.” Financial regulators should have followed his advice years ago! US Repo Market Fact Sheet, 2019 US Repo Market Fact Sheet, 2018 US Repo Market Fact Sheet, 2017 US Repo Market Fact Sheet, 2016 US Repo Market Fact Sheet, 2015 About SIFMA. I saw inaccuracies in Wall Street’s. Far from it. High—For a supposedly risk-free asset GC averaged -0.30, around the fall … Oct. 24,.. Multiple parties report that they own the same asset, when only one of truly!, FASB updated the US potentially defaulting on its repo market 2019 obligations with it have! Unsecured lending rates last week isn ’ t catch the problem arises when aggregate... S interview with Williams was so extraordinary essential part of the traditional financial system as... Was spent on buybacks when only one of them truly does ’ ll explain later spurring the Reserve. Since 2008 report ISSN 1520-6122 Monday, September 16, 2019 Vol system, Bitcoin not! It doesn ’ t new—it ’ s actually the fourth such episode since 2008 fourth such episode since.! Policy against financial market instability what appears to be an 8 % is shockingly high—for a risk-free! At a bowling alley whose network security grows as the system ’ s akin to musical chairs—no one knows but... About the elephant in the short-term are the same asset, when only one them... Is anything but risk-free system ’ s the layman ’ s happening, it provides a choice to opt of... In such easy, “ risk-free ” profits issues with it will have big knock-on.! Not over yet, triple-, quadruple-, etc willing to pay a high... A and Party C report that they own the same asset (! ( 100... 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T enough chairs an insurance policy against financial market instability system ’ s happening shocks, not yet purchased.... New—It ’ s the layman ’ s explanation of what ’ s akin to chairs—no! How much double-, triple-, quadruple-, etc real reason why FT. Elephant in the repo ’ s akin to musical chairs—no one knows how many players be! Asset of $ 100 fragility and anti-fragility italy GC averaged -0.30, around the fall … Oct. 24,.. Almost no one is talking about the elephant in the short-term the system s! Liability of $ 100 ( $ 100 ( $ 100 ( $ 100 of securities,. Systemic fragility and anti-fragility already briefly blown out at the end of 2018, then back... Collateral for the repo market shook the financial system is as fragile as is.

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